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[德意志银行]:pharma the latest rx for amazon's healthcare ambitions -尊龙凯时人生就博

亚马逊,amzn2018-09-10lloyd walmsley、kunal madhukar、chris kuntarich、seth gilbert、greg vlahakis听***
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10 september 2018internetamazon.comratingbuyvaluation & riskstmtinternetprice at 4 sep 2018 (usd)2,039.51price target2,300.0052-week range2,039.51 - 938.60company updatenorth americaunited statescompanyamazon.comreutersbloombergexchangetickeramzn.oqamzn usnsmamzndate10 september 2018deutsche bankresearchpharma the latest rx for amazon'shealthcare ambitionsprime whole foods pillpack sets stage for more holistic healthcare offeringwe believe amazon's ~$1b acquisition of pillpack ( link ), which has pharmacylicenses in 49 states, could accelerate amazon's move into healthcare morebroadly, increasing the value of the prime service and overall consumer walletshare in a large part of the economy. pillpack currently delivers medications inpre-sorted dose packaging, coordinates refills and renewals, and makes sureshipments are sent on time. we see amazon likely to expand this effort to helpingcustomers more holistically manage health, using prescription information tohelp educate customers on their conditions and merchandise over-the-countermedicine, healthcare supplies and healthy food to customers and to selladvertising. amazon is further looking at healthcare through its jv with berkshirehathaway and jp morgan, which just hired a coo. amazon has a history ofstarting small, testing the market and fine-tuning the service, before launching afull fledged commercial operations. as such, we believe it is a question of whenand where – and not if – amazon enters the healthcare space more forcefully.in this report, we dive into the healthcare ecosystem to better understand thepotential opportunities for amazon, recognizing fully well that it is a complexspace where it may take years before amazon (and its jv partners) are able tomake any meaningful change to status quo. we inform this with a fresh cut ofdata gleaned from our survey conducted earlier this year which highlights (1) astrong willingness for consumers to try amazon for pharmaceutical purchases, (2)a particularly strong inclination among prime members, and (3) a willingness toallow amazon to merchandize other products and services based on a consumer'smedications. we see amazon addressing a near-term tam of ~$22b frommail order pharma, ~$55b of front-end otc/supplies, and ~$2.6b of us onlinehealthcare advertising, which gives us a total tam of ~$80b ( figure 5 ). we lookat tam in more detail and bottoms-up potential from this pace in this note.db survey suggests consumers want amazon toowe conducted a proprietary survey in conjunction with our health caretechnology & distribution team led by glen santangelo to better understandconsumer preferences with respect to pharmacy options. the survey includeda diverse set of consumers ranging from 18 years old to 65 in order to betterunderstand their current purchasing habits and preferences, and how they differby age category and insurance-type. the key takeaways from the survey includethe following.lloyd walmsleyresearch analyst 1-212-250-7063kunal madhukar, cfaresearch analyst 1-212-250-0237chris kuntarichresearch associate 1-904-520-4899seth gilbertresearch associate 1-212-250-1268greg vlahakisresearch associate 1-212-250-7149price/price relativeamazon.coms&p 500 index (rebased)2016201720180100020003000performance (%)1m3m12mabsolute11.922.5108.5s&p 500 index2.05.517.0source: deutsche bankstock option liquidity datamarket cap (usdm)993,094.0shares outstanding (m)486.9volume (4 sep 2018)1,518,451source: deutsche bankdeutsche bank securities inc.deutsche bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. thus, investors should beaware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. investors should considerthis report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. disclosures and analyst certificationsare located in appendix 1. mci (p) 091/04/2018.distributed on: 11/09/2018 00:33:09 gmt7t2se3r0ot6kwopaprovided for the exclusive use of research research at provisional access on 2018-09-12t02:14 00:00. do not redistribute 10 september 2018internetamazon.comkey takeaway #1 – consumers willing to try amzn: a surprising 71% suggestedthey would be willing to purchase prescription drugs through amazon. whileinterest declined by age, we were still surprised to see that approximately 52%of the respondents in the 65 age category would be willing to purchase drugsthrough amazon.key takeaway #2 – prime drives interest: 85% of prime members who haveinsurance indicated a willingness to purchase, which we think is broadlyindicative of the trust consumers have in amazon. what is surprising is that 55%of the respondents who were not prime members also said they will purchasepharma drugs from amazon if they were available. – see figures 2 and 3key takeaway #3 – willingness to purch

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